Meeting |
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Report |
Meeting |
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Report |
February 19, 2002 |
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| The February 19th meeting of the Charlotte Rotary Club
was called to order by President Jim Woodward. Jack Smylie introduced the guests
and visiting Rotarians. David Anderson gave what was one of the shorter Health
& Happiness reports in recent memory by suggesting that we all keep happiness in our
hearts. President Jim led the Pledge of Allegiance and called upon Don Steger to lead us in song. Since Don was unavailable, Thomas Moore moved from the piano to the microphone and led us in an impromptu version of "Old Man River," in honor of Don Steger. Lamar Thomas offered the invocation. President Jim made two announcements reminding the Club that work on our newest Habitat House would commence this Thursday and that Tom Robertson was still looking for a few more workers. Also, the Club was reminded that the Annual Joint Rotary Club Meeting will be held March 20th at the Adam's Mark Hotel, and will feature an address from Sandra Baldwin, President of the U.S. Olympic Committee. Members seated at the head table included Lamar Thomas, Erik Lindborg, Ed Kizer, Claude Lilly, John Galles and Bob Barber, who introduced the program. John Connaughton is Professor of Economics at UNCC, where he joined the faculty in 1978. He is the director of the UNC-Charlotte Economic Forecast, which is recognized as the leading source of economic information for North Carolina, and serves as the coordinator for the Master of Science in Economics program. Dr. Connaughton has authored economic impact studies that have received widespread attention. He began by stating that while the news he brings is not all that bad, it is also not all that good. He went on to give a brief history of how the economy got to where it is today. The last recession was in 1991 and was followed by the longest sustained expansion on record, highlighted by annual growth rates of 4.5-5 percent. In October, the National Bureau of Economic Research dated the beginning of the recession back to March 2001. There is always a lag of several months before the trends are clear enough to date the actual beginning of a recession and the same will be true about dating the beginning of the recovery. A recession is essentially defined as a downturn in the general economy. Dr. Connaughton believes that the Federal Reserve is most responsible for the current recession by beginning a series of over-corrections starting in 1998 to cover U.S. companies that were in trouble because of the decline in the Asian markets. Another contributing factor was over-investment in capital by U.S. corporations toward the end of the last decade. Throughout most of 2001, consumer confidence was strong. It was the events of September 11th that marked the significant shift in consumer spending. The reality of this recession is that it has been business-driven, and it will turn into recovery when businesses again start investing capital. In fact the GDP declined in the third quarter of last year, and if you factored out the automotive sector, GDP would have declined in the fourth quarter as well. Is the recession over? The honest answer is, "We don't know." Since there is a three- to four-month lag in declaring a recession ended, it remains to be seen. While the average recession is eleven months in duration, this recession in many respects is not average and is likely to last several months longer. In order for the recession to end, the business sector has to start investing. The fourth quarter numbers last year were dismal and there is no indication that trend is about to change. Additionally, auto manufacturing, which was up in the fourth quarter, is not able to sustain that trend because they were offering such deep discounts and low financing to boost sales. Also, housing, which was robust last year because of early consumer confidence and later because of strong declines in the mortgage financing rates, cannot sustain that trend. Given those factors, it will likely be May before we see this recession end and we will not officially know it has ended for several months after that. From a consumer standpoint it will probably take a year after the recession has ended before most people will feel like the economy has improved. Looking at the economy in North Carolina, Dr. Connaughton stated that since 1990 we have added 1 million jobs, which accounts for an almost 25 percent increase in the total number of jobs in the state. During the same period we lost about 150,000 manufacturing jobs which were primarily in the textile and apparel industry sectors. Unemployment in the current recession has peaked in the state at 6 percent and is now below that mark. Some of the negative effects of the current economy in North Carolina can be attributed less to the recession and more to the expansion of expenses at the state level of government. "The state of the economy is not as bad as the state of the government." In making general predictions, Dr. Connaughton stated the following: "2002 will be a year of recovery, but it will not feel very good. For all purposes the recession is over. 2003 will feel much better; expect 3 percent growth rate nationally and 4 percent in North Carolina; unemployment will slide back to around 4 percent." He added a caveat, from a sign on a student's door at the university: "The purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look good." A period of questions followed the presentation. In responding to a question about the role that consumers will play in ending the current recession, Dr. Connaughton said that it would be up to businesses to lead us out of the recession since they, along with the Federal Reserve Board, had put us into the current situation. Regarding the Japanese economy, he said that it was indeed a mess and that the problems were essentially structural in nature. In fact, their economy has never recovered from the 1991 recession. However, he does not believe that their continued weakness will significantly impact the United States because we are not that invested in their economy and they do not consume a great deal of goods from our country. In response to questions about public policy and tax policy at the national level and at the state level, he said he believes it is too late for a federal stimulus package and the recent tax hikes in North Carolina did not help the economy. He is concerned that North Carolina is going the way of states like Massachusetts with higher and higher income and sales taxes, which he believes will have an increasingly negative impact on the state's economic health. When asked what the Federal Reserve Board will do in March he said, "Nothing. They will stay on the sideline." Finally, in responding to a question about the impact of the Enron scandal, he stated that the potential impact was far greater than the events of September 11th. He suggested that K-Mart probably would not have had to file for bankruptcy had it not been for the scandal. President Jim thanked Dr. Connaughton for his presentation, which was well received by the Club. * * * |
New Member 
SELENA KRAUSE ROGERS
2002 Health Services, Non-Profit The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society Selena Rogers is the executive director for the North Carolina Chapter of The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, a position she has held since 1992. Prior to coming to North Carolina, Selena was the executive director for the Society's Northern Florida Chapter, starting her career in 1986. Selena is responsible for providing overall leadership and management for strategies designed to create cost-effective and on-going sources of revenue, community presence, and mission enhancement for the Society. These activities are conducted in conjunction with (he Chapter Board of Trustees. Major among these responsibilities is fund raising, volunteer development, community involvement, public relations, and administration. Selena is the past president of Community Health Charities, a member of the National Society of Fund Raising Executives, and a member of the Executive Directors Council. A native of Clinton, South Carolina, Selena is a graduate of Columbia College with a B.S. in computer science and a B.A. in dance arts. Selena has been married for ten years to John Rogers. John is an internal consultant with First Union's Enterprising Business division. Selena and John spend most of their leisure time traveling. Welcome to Charlotte Rotary, Selena. * * * |
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